The Magic Number That Could Change Your Fundraising Forever

What if I told you there’s a single data point, one number, that predicts whether a donor will become a lifelong supporter of your organization better than anything else?

Not their wealth. Not their giving history. Not how many times they’ve opened your emails.

The magic number is 3.

Three consecutive fundraising events.

That’s the magic number.

I know what you’re thinking. ‘We already know that events are important.’ And yes, we do. But what our friend Nathan Chappell – data scientist, AI pioneer, and author of The Generosity Crisis and Nonprofit AI – found in the data goes way beyond gut instinct. This is hard science. And once you hear it, you’ll never look at your guest list the same way again.

Nathan has spent his career at the intersection of fundraising and data science. He built City of Hope’s first machine learning model to predict which patients were likely to make donations. After that, he led a company that built custom AI models for approximately 150 of the largest charities in America.

That’s a lot of data. That’s a lot of events. And what came back from that data, over and over again, was something that stopped Nathan in his tracks.

What the Data Actually Says

When Nathan and his team started building predictive models for major gift giving, they looked at hundreds of variables: age, giving history, wealth indicators, engagement patterns, and more. They were looking for the top predictors that someone would make a significant gift.

And event attendance kept rising to the top.

Not just attending events. But the pattern of attendance.

“We started plotting event attendance,” Nathan told us on Hey Nonprofits!, “and it wasn’t just attending an event, but attending a third event became the highest indicator of someone making a major gift.”

Here’s where it gets really interesting: attending a fourth, fifth, or sixth event doesn’t increase that likelihood. The jump happens at three.

Why Three? The Psychology Behind the Data

Event One: Someone invited you. You didn’t really know the organization. Maybe you were curious, maybe you just didn’t want to say no. You showed up, had the chicken dinner, and heard the stories. It was your first exposure to the mission.

Event Two: You could have said no. You didn’t. That means something. Maybe the mission, maybe the people, maybe the energy in the room – pulled you back. And you’re giving more & more convinced this is your community.

Event Three: Nobody dragged you here. You came on your own. You know the mission. You know some of the faces. And somewhere between the cocktail hour and the fund-a-need, something clicks.

As Nathan puts it:
“The third event you were like, I’m in. I’ve already had the chicken dinner and I’ve heard the stories and now I feel like I’m part of this tribe.”

What This Means for Your Events Strategy

Start thinking about your fundraising events as relationship incubators

Yes, you want to raise money at your event. Absolutely. The paddle raise, the live auction, the Golden Ticket raffle – all of it matters and all of it works. But the donor who drops $150 in your paddle drop for the first time? That’s not just $150. That’s the beginning of a relationship that, if cultivated properly, could become a $4,000 live auction bid next year, a $10,000 paddle raise gift the year after, and potentially a major or planned gift somewhere down the road.

Nathan tells the story of a Northwestern donor who gave $250 at an event in 1994. Through decades of consistent engagement and stewardship, that donor ultimately gave $94 million.

Focus on Getting People to Three

So what does this mean practically? How do we get attendees to the magic number of three events?

This becomes THE question for your events and development team.

Year One: Get them in the room. Personal invitations from board members. Sponsor tables that bring new faces. The goal is a first experience that makes them curious enough and engaged enough to return.

Year Two: The relationships built between events matter enormously here. Did they get a personal thank-you? Do they know where their money went? Are they hearing from your organization in ways that feel meaningful, not transactional? The goal is earning that second yes.

Year Three: This is where the magic happens. They’re coming because they want to. Your job now is to make the experience so memorable, so connected to your mission, that the magic of lifelong support transpires. This is why every year you want your best auctioneer, your most compelling videos, your most powerful mission moment. Because you’re welcoming a lifelong supporter.

The World Needs This Right Now

Here’s the thing that makes this data point even more urgent in 2026.

Nathan literally wrote the book The Generosity Crisis. Donor participation is declining. Retention is getting more difficult. Organizations are trying to raise more money from a shrinking donor pool with less resources.

The answer is to build more relationships. To create more community. To stop treating every interaction as a transaction and start treating every event as an invitation into something bigger.

Nathan said something that stuck with me: “Nonprofits don’t remember that they ARE the community.”

Your event isn’t just a fundraiser. It’s a gathering place for people who care about what you care about. And when someone walks through those doors for the first time, you’re not just raising money – you’re potentially beginning a relationship that could last decades.

Three events, that’s the magic!

At HGA Fundraising, we help nonprofits create the kind of events that make donors want to come back year after year. From unforgettable auction packages to the Golden Ticket strategy that gets first-time donors in the door, we’re here to help you build the events that build the relationships that build your mission.

Because it’s not about one great event. It’s about creating the experience that brings them back for the second one, and the third.

Your next lifelong donor might already be in the room. Make sure they come back with effective generosity: